|InterJournal Complex Systems, 810
|Manuscript Number: |
Submission Date: 2004
|Mathematical models of stochastic level that may be used within the complex system of ferry-boat sea navigation|
Mathematical models of stochastic level that may be used within the complex system of ferry-boat sea navigation Keywords:traffic,system,stochastic At present, within the complex system of ferry-boat sea navigation in Romania, there are 12,500 TDW specialized ships which navigate in the international waters of the Black Sea, along sea lines Constantza-Derince (Turkey) and Constantza – Batumi (Georgia). In this paper there are several propositions of stochastic level mathematical models used to determine the optimum time horizon and the minimum time required for these ships to reach the destination harbors. These methods take into account some aleatory elements intervening in achieving a turnus, such as: weather conditions, possibilities to get into and out of straits, the situation of the navigable waters, the possibilities of getting into and out of harbor berths, the strait-roads-berth-ship sub-system being considered a complex order I waiting system, characterized by the Law of Poisson. The paper uses both the statistic data recorded in the year 2003, and a few methods of stochastic analysis and specific operational research (Monte-Carlo, Markov, waiting processes, prospective dynamic analysis, the decision theory, the games theory, the affecting theory), identifying the possibilities of an optimum feed-back. The obtained results are new in the field, having significance of theoretical and applying level, useful mainly in characterizing any complex system of ferry-boat navigation according to its local and general conditions. The paper also presents a soft program by which the respective system may be predicted and optimized.
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