InterJournal Complex Systems, 1746
Status: Accepted
Manuscript Number: [1746]
Submission Date: 2006
Can Models Capture the Complexity of the Systems Engineering Process?
Author(s): Leonard Wojcik ,Sam Chow ,Olivier de Weck ,Christian LaFon

Subject(s): CX.68



Large-scale systems engineering efforts involving multiple stakeholders often have been problematic, and various modeling approaches have been attempted to better understand the factors that influence systems engineering success or failure and how to improve the process. Modeling methodologies include system dynamics (SD) [1], parametric cost modeling based on expert input [2], and Highly Optimized Tolerance (HOT) [3]. This paper compares and contrasts these three modeling approaches, with emphasis on applying SD and HOT models to the specific case of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Advanced Automation System (AAS) program (1981-1994). We draw conclusions regarding the three modeling approaches and suggest possible enhancements to the HOT approach. The work was done as two student projects in MIT’s Fall 2005 System Project Management class. [1] Cooper, K. G., Lyneis, J. M., and Bryant, B. J., “Learning to Learn, From Past to Future,” International Journal of Project Management, vol. 20, 2002, pp. 213-219. [2] Boehm, B. W., Reifer, D. J., Valerdi, R., “COSYSMO: A Systems Engineering Cost Model,” Submitted for the 1st Annual Conference on Systems Integration, 12-14 March 2003, Stevens Institute of Technology Campus, Hoboken, NJ. [3] Wojcik, L. A., “A Highly-Optimized Tolerance (HOT)-Inspired Model of the Large-Scale Systems Engineering Process,” in Student Papers, Complex Systems Summer School, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, June 6 – July 2, 2004, Santa Fe Institute. The contents of this document reflect the views of the authors and The MITRE Corporation and do not necessarily reflect the views of the FAA or the DOT. Neither the Federal Aviation Administration nor the Department of Transportation makes any warranty or guarantee, expressed or implied, concerning the content or accuracy of these views.

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