InterJournal Complex Systems, 1696
Status: Accepted
Manuscript Number: [1696]
Submission Date: 2006
Complexity, competitive intelligence and the “first mover” advantage
Author(s): Philip Fellman ,Jonathan Post

Subject(s): CX.4



Complexity, Competitive Intelligence and the “First Mover” Advantage by Philip Vos Fellman, Southern New Hampshire University Jonathan Vos Post, Computer Futures In this paper we explore some of the ways in which competitive intelligence and game theory can be employed to assist firms in deciding whether or not to undertake international market diversification and whether or not there is an advantage to being a market leader or a market follower overseas. We begin by looking at how recent advances in the physical and biological sciences can contribute to the ways in which we understand firm behavior – how firms grow, change, adapt and plan for the future. Using nonlinear dynamical systems modeling, evolutionary biology and statistical mechanics we explore the contributions which agent-based modeling can bring to microeconomic analysis of the firm, particularly in situations characterized by non-equilibrium dynamics. We then review Kauffman’s NK-Boolean fitness landscape model in the context of competitive intelligence, decisional search, and adaptive walks on rugged fitness landscapes. After presenting a formal model of competitive intelligence meta-analysis, we employ the Nash Equilibrium to explore traditional economic notions of “first mover advantage”, suggesting how these models might be modified to better accord with a strict mathematical interpretation of game theory and conclude by explaining some applications of competitive intelligence to first mover/second mover strategy problems.

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