InterJournal Complex Systems, 573
Status: Submitted
Manuscript Number: [573]
Submission Date: 20601
Revised On: 21001
Development and self-organization of complex system,Case of world economy
Author(s): Dmitry Chistilin

Subject(s): CX.43, CX.46

Category: Article


DEVELOPMENT AND SELF-ORGANIZATION OF COMPLEX SYSTEM. CASE OF WORLD ECONOMY abstract This work is an intermediate result of a research of the process of development and self-organization of the world economy; this research was begun in 1998 and it uses a complex systematic approach. Some elements of the work were presented at scientific forums of NECS ( ICCS-98, ICCS-2000). The objective of the work is to reveal and define phenomena, which are characteristic for the behavior of complex systems in the process of their development on the basis of factual material of the world economy development during the period of 1825-2000. The following methods are used in the research: complex-systematic analysis, historical and interdisciplinary methods and method of simulation in verbal-logical form. Social system – “the world economy” – is considered as a complex system consisting of two global subsystems: economic and political. Common agents for both subsystems are national economies, which interact in economic and political spheres and form connections and structure of social system of the world economy. The principal functional purpose of social system “the world economy” is an achievement of self-regulation of relations between agents in economic system through political system which results in the state of max. dynamic equilibrium, i.e. economic growth of world economy. The functioning of the world economy means an implementation of economic and political relations in the process of international exchange of resources on the basis of international division of labour with the aim of the most effective distribution of valuable resources for production and valuable benefits for consumption. Development of social system means a process of increasing its stability under the influence of outside environment (keeping stability in the given limits – homeostasis) by means of accumulation of structural information changing the quantity of organization (effectiveness) of the system and making its structure more complicated. Increasing of stability is expressed in accumulation of economic effectiveness and formation of more complicated structure of society. Development of world economy means a co-evolution of economic and political subsystems development resulted in gradual complication of social structure, which increases the system stability under the influence of environment, pressure of population growth and limited resources. Development means a change of equilibrium states with different macro-economic characteristics. Each state is expressed in structural and quantitative characteristics. For world economy we will consider the of international monetary system (IMS) as a structural characteristic. We will consider the growth rate of the gross national product of countries participating in international economic relations as a quantitative characteristic. Taking into consideration that at the present moment 210 countries are involved in the world economy, we'll choose a group of countries as a core of the world economy development; this group is called a “triad”, namely countries of Western Europe, USA, Canada, and Japan. Their share in worldwide production and trade in XIX and XX centuries was more than 50%. For these specific countries we calculate the aggregate growth rate of gross national product in determined interval of time 1825-1997. On the basis of historical material we distinguish three types of structural characteristics of world economy or the three types of international monetary system: gold standard; Bretton-Woods system; Jamaica system; and, correspondingly, three periods of time and three states of the world economy. On the basis of statistical data we calculate the quantitative characteristics for each state. Then we bring all data together into the tables. On the basis of determined states, we build verbal-logical model of the world economy (figure 1). As an specimen, we take the R.Àbdååv's model, which is based on the idea that phenomenon of development can be considered as a struggle between two opposite trends – organization and disorganization. The process of development, which starts from the maximum of disorganization, can be described as a process of accumulation of structural information, which is calculated as the difference between the real and maximum values of entropy.

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