InterJournal Complex Systems, 414
Status: Accepted
Manuscript Number: [414]
Submission Date: 609
Revised On: 628
Nonlinear dynamics in births to teens in Texas
Author(s): Patti Hamilton ,Bruce J. West

Subject(s): CX.43

Category: Article


This manuscript describes a two-phase study of the time series of daily counts of births to teens in Texas from 1964 through 1998. In Phase One, results showed ambiguous evidence of chaotic dynamics. In Phase Two, two methods of nonlinear analysis were tested for feasibility with sociodemographic data sets. Both methods hold promise for identifying subtle shifts in dynamics of the process that may be indicators of policy effectiveness and/or may help us to target interventions to prevent teen pregnancy. Sociodemographic data sets present special problems for nonlinear dynamical analysis in that they are often relatively short (less than 1000 data points). The results of both phases of study are presented and questions are raised about the appropriate application of nonlinear dynamical analysis in sociodemographic research.

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