InterJournal Complex Systems, 375
Status: Accepted
Manuscript Number: [375]
Submission Date: 502
Revised On: 20715
Strategic Planning amidst Massive Uncertainty in Complex Adaptive Systems: the Case of Defense Planning
Author(s): Paul Davis

Subject(s): CX.43, CX.44, CX

Category: Brief Article

Abstract:

In this paper I describe certain core problems of defense planning, which have much in common with planning problems that arise generally when dealing with complex adaptive systems characterized by unpredictability. I then describe concepts and methods that my colleagues and I have brought to bear. The concepts relate to managing risk and uncertainty. The methods involve exploratory analysis and multiresolution, multiperspective modeling, which facilitates such analysis. Often, such models need adaptive agents. As a supplement or alternative, one may also use human gaming.

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