InterJournal Complex Systems, 239
Status: Accepted
Manuscript Number: [239]
Submission Date: 981214
Revised On: 1002
A Model System and Individual-Based Simulation for Developing Statistical Techniques and Hypotheses for Population Dynamics in Fragmented Populations
Author(s): Jay Bancroft

Subject(s): CX.3, CX.33, CX.34, CX.19, CX.06

Category: Brief Article


I am testing the effect of resource deterioration and subdivision on the population dynamics of the sawtoothed grain beetle, Oryzaephilus suranemensis (L.). Empirically calibrated functions form the basis of an individual-based simulation model. Time series census data has been taken on populations subjected to resource limitation and fragmentation. Population time-series data for the metapopulations is used to test the predictions of the simulation. By calibrating the model with short-term empirical trials and testing the simulation using long-term, observed populations, a greater degree of confidence may be placed on the predictions of the model. The simulation is used to quantify the most influential parameters on population abundance. This work aims to link theory to conservation biology using controlled experiments that can not be performed with endangered species or in landscape-sized systems.

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