InterJournal Complex Systems, 384
Status: Submitted
Manuscript Number: [384]
Submission Date: 506
An Agent-Based Model of the Airline Industry
Author(s): William Niedringhaus

Subject(s): CX.44, CX.43, CX

Category: Brief Article


The Air Carrier Service Evolution Model (ACSEM) is an agent-based model that explores the evolution of the airline industry and its interactions with the US National Airspace System (NAS). ACSEM models airline decisions such as markets (what airports to serve and where to establish hubs), fleet mix, schedules, fares, and airline responses to delays, congestion and missed connections. ACSEM also models decisions by the FAA or individual airports, related to airport hourly capacities and possible reductions imposed due to weather or congestion.

Because these factors both affect and are affected by each other, understanding their complex interaction is beyond the ability of traditional modeling tools and has not been attempted until now. The problem is difficult enough thanks to the sheer numbers involved: thousands of aircraft and millions of possible flight connections. But the main source of difficulty is the entangled web of interactions with multiple feedback loops. Using agent-based modeling techniques, it is now feasible to build a model such as ACSEM to address aspects of airline/NAS evolution.

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