InterJournal Complex Systems, 593
Status: Accepted
Manuscript Number: [593]
Submission Date: 20627
A CA based two-stage model of land use dynamics in urban fringe areas: An application to the Tokyo metropolitan region.
Author(s): Takeshi ARAI

Subject(s): CX.04.02.5

Category: Brief Article


To develop a more practical simulation model applicable to the planning process at local governments, we tried to create a CA(Cellular automata) based two-stage land use model which precisely describe the transition between the land use states of each 100-m square cell. We applied our model to a suburban city in the Tokyo metropolitan region by using a set of data with the title gDetailed Digital Information (10 m Grid Land Use) Metropolitan Areah. As the factors which may affect the transition potential of land-use of a cell, we picked out aggregated land use state in the neighbourhood and accessibility to transport services. To estimate the parameters of the equations in the model, we used discriminant analysis and logistic regression. The percentage of the number of cells whose land-uses are correctly predicted by the model was improved compared with the precedent model developed by the authors.

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